[osint] Maybe Obama Should Worry

http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200805/POL200
80514b.html

Analysis: Maybe Obama Should Worry
By Nedra Pickler, Associated Press
CNSNews.com
May 14, 2008

Washington (AP) - Barack Obama is in hot pursuit of general election voters,
hoping America won’t notice he got his head handed to him in West Virginia.

The Illinois senator virtually pretended the primary didn’t happen Tuesday,
with no election night speech or any public appearance at all after the
polls closed and gave Hillary Rodham Clinton a more than 2-1 victory even
though her candidacy is likely doomed.

At Obama’s Chicago headquarters, advisers said there was no reason to worry
– West Virginia was demographically suited to Clinton and won’t be part of
their general election plans. It’s also true that Clinton’s win is unlikely
to slow his march toward the nomination — Obama picked up 30 superdelegates
this week, more than the 28 total pledged delegates up for grabs in West
Virginia.

But maybe the Obama camp should be more worried. The voters who went against
Obama Tuesday night — white, rural, older, low-income and without college
degrees — don’t just live in West Virginia. They live everywhere in the
country, in places Obama needs to win.

They live in places like Macomb County, Mich., where Obama planned to start
his day Wednesday by dropping by a Chrysler plant. That’s a recognition that
he has work to do to win over working class voters even if his campaign
doesn’t say it.

Obama’s daylong visit to Michigan will be his first campaigning there since
he signed onto a pledge nine months ago to boycott the state. He pulled his
name from the ballot in the state’s illegitimate primary, held too early for
party rules.

That means many voters in the state are just starting to get to know Obama,
said Bill Rustem, president of Michigan think tank Public Sector
Consultants.

"There’s a lot of excitement among young people and among African-Americans,
which should serve him well," Rustem said. "There still are questions among
older white people that I think he’s going to have to try to appeal to them
in some way, shape or form. I’m sure that’s in part why he’s coming to
Michigan — to begin that process."

Obama’s campaign leaders say they are confident most of these Clinton voters
are Democrats first and will support Obama once the primary is over. In a
memo before the polls even closed, they said conclusions cannot be drawn
about the general election campaign from the results of the Democratic
primaries and pointed out that head-to-head polls between Obama and McCain
show Obama is running as well as past Democratic candidates among white
voters.

"These people are Democrats," said Democratic consultant Steve McMahon, who
is not working for either candidate. "They will come home."

Clinton’s advisers said she planned to use her big victory to try to
persuade uncommitted superdelegates during a meeting at her home Wednesday
that she would be the strongest nominee in the general election.

"It is a fact that no Democrat has won the White House since 1916 without
winning West Virginia," Clinton said in her victory speech. "The bottom line
is this: The White House is won in the swing states, and I am winning the
swing states."

The Obama campaign also said in its memo that Clinton also will likely win
handily next week in Kentucky. His saving grace is that Oregon votes on the
same day and is likely to give Obama a big win to balance it out. A double
shellacking for Obama would have had him limping to the nomination.

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