[osint] One in Five Democrats Set to Defect to McCain, Polls Show

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One in Five Democrats Set to Defect to McCain, Polls Show
By Fred Lucas
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
May 12, 2008

(CNSNews.com) - A string of polls conducted by the Suffolk University
Political Research Center over the past month–in Pennsylvania, Ohio,
Indiana and, now, West Virginia–show that roughly 20 percent of Democratic
primary voters are ready to vote for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in November
if their choice candidate isn’t the nominee.

The latest survey, which questioned 600 likely voters in Tuesday’s West
Virginia Democratic presidential primary, shows Sen. Hillary Clinton
(D-N.Y.) trouncing Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the national front-runner, by
36 points in West Virginia, 60 percent to 24 percent.

Obama may be his party’s presumptive nominee, but the Suffolk University
poll indicates it is unlikely he can carry this battleground state that
Democrats have won in eight of the last 12 presidential elections.

The poll shows that almost a quarter of Democratic voters in the state (23
percent) say they will vote for Republican nominee McCain in November if
their candidate loses the nomination battle. (See Poll
). Only 40
percent now say they will vote for the Democratic Party’s eventual nominee
no matter what happens in the primaries, while nearly a third said they
would be undecided. Six percent say they will support independent candidate
Ralph Nader.

That significant numbers of Democrats across a wide swath of northern states
are saying they will shift their support to McCain in the general election
if their first choice does not win the Democratic nomination could mean real
trouble for the Democrats in November, said David Paleologos, director of
the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

"You want to know what the leakage is among Democratic voters," Paleologos
told Cybercast News Service . "It’s still around 20 percent. That is, in the
four or five states we’ve asked this question, each time it’s about 20
percent or more, sometimes higher, where registered Democrat voters are
saying they will vote for McCain in the general election. That’s a big
problem."

He said West Virginia is likely leaning Republican in the presidential race
this year, but far from a certainty. He said Clinton would have been a long
shot to pick up West Virginia, but "Obama would be a remote shot or a longer
shot."

"In 2000, Al Gore won 72 percent of West Virginia Democratic primary voters
and lost the state’s general election to George W. Bush by six percent,"
Paleologos said. "In 2004, John Kerry won 69 percent of West Virginia
Democratic primary voters and lost the general election to George Bush by 13
percent. If Barack Obama can’t even garner 30 percent of West Virginia
Democratic primary voters, what does that say about the West Virginia
general election."

A Pennsylvania
poll done by a separate polling firm in March showed similar
results, indicating that 19 percent of Pennsylvania Clinton supporters said
they would vote for McCain in November, while 20 percent of Obama supporters
said they would vote for the Republican.

Democratic Party insiders have publicly expressed concern that the long
primary campaign between Obama and Clinton could hurt the party in the fall,
particularly since McCain wrapped up his party’s nomination in February.
Both Obama and Clinton, however, have said they believe the party will unify
behind whoever the nominee is in November.

"No doubt the party heals. The question is, can the party heal from 60
percent to 80 percent?" Paleologos said. "Healing just 60 percent to 75
percent of the party in Ohio is going to matter in a general election. I
don’t think people have adequately quantified how much healing is needed."

"You can’t go after independents in October if you haven’t healed the
Democratic Party," Paleologos said.

The Suffolk poll could be welcome to Clinton, who has been facing pressure
to withdraw. She has argued that she is a stronger general election
candidate against McCain. Sixty-seven percent of the Democratic primary
voters in West Virginia told the pollsters that they support Clinton’s
decision to remain in the primary contest against Obama and do not think
it’s harming the party.

In one bit of good news for Obama, 51 percent of West Virginia Democrats
surveyed believed Obama could beat McCain in November. Still, 29 percent
don’t think he can win.

West Virginia Democrats also are apparently undeterred by the predictions of
pundits that Obama already has the nomination wrapped up. When asked who
they thought would be the next president - regardless of who they supported
- 31 percent said Clinton, 27 percent said Obama and 26 percent said McCain.

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